Are Home Prices Dropping in Frisco, Texas? What to Know Before You Buy or Sell

It depends on the city, the price range and the condition of the home. A market is many small markets, so one headline number rarely describes your street. Some homes are selling after a price cut and a longer wait. Others in the same city are holding their value.

I'm Omega Mejia, a real estate agent with Simply Great Real Estate Group at OnDemand Realty. This article expands my short answer on the FAQ page. Below I explain what the large reports say, why they do not settle the question for one house, and what I do for a client instead.

Start with what primary sources say, and keep the dates in view.

The Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center published its 2026 Texas forecast on January 15, 2026. It projected a statewide median home price of around $334,000 for 2026, a slight increase of 1.3 percent. It also noted that price-cutting activity was offsetting inventory growth. That is a forecast made in January, not a measurement of today.

On the national side, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported on September 29, 2026 that its House Price Index rose 0.3 percent from June to July 2026 and 2.6 percent from July 2025 to July 2026. That index tracks the country as a whole.

Neither number is a Collin County number. They show a broad picture of modest movement, with sellers cutting prices in places where supply is growing. For the current Collin County figures, ask me for a pull from the local MLS, since a monthly report from a state or national source arrives weeks after the sales it describes.

An average blends every kind of sale together. A new build in a growing area, an older home that needs work and a renovated home near a park all land in the same number. If the mix of homes that sold changes from one month to the next, the average can move without any single home changing in value.

A county average does not price one home. I look at the closest recent sales: similar size, similar age, similar condition, similar street. If you want to see how that works, my page on how I price a home walks through it, and the free home value request shows you the sales behind the number.

A price cut is a signal about one listing. It might mean the first price was too high for the buyers who were looking. It might mean the home needed repairs or better preparation. It does not prove that the whole market is falling.

When I price a home with a seller, I use the CLEAR Real Estate Method and a Plan A, Plan B and Plan C approach. Plan A is the price and timeline we try first. Plans B and C are agreed in advance, so a slow first two weeks leads to a clear decision instead of a guess. Pricing right at the start usually costs less than chasing the market down with repeated cuts, and I would rather show you the sales behind that than ask you to take my word.

If you are getting ready to list, see preparing your home and marketing your home.

A buyer has more room to negotiate on a home that has been sitting. That room can show up as a lower price, repairs after the inspection, or flexibility on timing. How much depends on the home, and I would not promise it ahead of time.

I look at how long a home has been listed, whether the price has changed, and what similar homes sold for. Then we decide on an offer together. Read more on making an offer and inspections and the option period. If you are buying new, visit new construction, where builders set their own pricing and incentives.

Mortgage rates affect what a monthly payment looks like, and that shapes how much buyers can pay. The Texas A&M center's January forecast gave a range for rates by December 2026, but rates change often. Talk to a lender for today's rate. Getting pre-approved is a good first step.

Frisco, McKinney, Plano, Allen, Prosper, Celina, Anna, Melissa and Little Elm each have a different mix of homes, ages, lot sizes and builders. A price trend in one can look nothing like a trend in the next. Start with the city page for the area you care about, such as Frisco, McKinney, Plano, Allen, Prosper or Celina, then ask me for the recent sales in your price range.

Selling first and buying second, or the reverse, adds a timing question. See sell then buy and buy then sell.

• Ask your agent: Which recent sales are closest to my home, and how did you choose them?
• Ask your agent: How many nearby homes cut their price before they sold, and by how much?
• Ask a lender: What is today's rate, and how would a different rate change my monthly payment?
• Ask the Collin Central Appraisal District: How was my property valued for tax purposes?

Property tax values and market prices are separate things, so confirm the rules for your situation with a tax professional.

If you want a plain answer for your own address, contact me and I will walk through the sales with you. No pressure.

This is general information, not legal, tax, financial or insurance advice. Confirm your situation with the right professional.